← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 37% | 45% | 2.61 | value: +16% |
| Real Madrid B win | 34% | 32% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Real Madrid B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1394.12 | 1493.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.12 | -16.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 34.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.18 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |