← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
| Zaragoza win | 23% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.83 | 1477.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.52 | -15.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |