← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
| Hercules win | 20% | 26% | 5.01 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1515.22 | 1463.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.52 | 12.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |