← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 52% | 45% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 20% | 29% | 4.85 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 644.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1480.01 | 1403.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.45 | -25.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |