← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 36% | 45% | 2.73 | value: +24% |
| Mallorca win | 34% | 28% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1454.73 | 1507.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.78 | 10.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |