← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 40% | 43% | 2.44 | value: +5% |
| Real Madrid B win | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Real Madrid B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.54 | 1508.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.87 | 13.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |