← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +5% |
| Xerez win | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Xerez | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 738.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1315.38 | 1500.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.95 | -23.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.66 | 1.39 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |