← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 50% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Almeria win | 22% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 158.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1640.54 | 1598.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.23 | 54.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| league points | 74.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| state index | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |