← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 77% | 27% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 33% | 6.16 | value: +101% ⚠ |
| Hercules win | 8% | 40% | 12.42 | value: +401% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Racing Club de Santander | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 99.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.27 | 1496.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.37 | -5.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |