← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 58% | 24% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +20% |
| Recreativo win | 20% | 48% | 4.75 | value: +128% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1073.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1445.76 | 1436.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.86 | 20.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |