← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 41% | 27% | 2.36 | fair |
| Sp Gijon win | 30% | 43% | 3.28 | value: +41% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.79 | 1526.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.41 | -4.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 49.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |