← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
| Recreativo win | 20% | 20% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sp Gijon | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1530.26 | 1441.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.89 | 2.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |