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Sp Gijon 0–0 Recreativo

← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Sp Gijon win54%56%1.81fair
Draw26%24%3.68fair
Recreativo win20%20%4.97fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSp GijonRecreativo
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1530.261441.73
elo momentum (last 5)-13.892.50
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
league points55.0052.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.381.30
state index0.16-0.38
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60