← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 68% | 51% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.88 | value: +16% |
| Numancia win | 12% | 25% | 8.22 | value: +107% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1527.90 | 1498.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.84 | -3.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |