← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara win | 52% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Lugo win | 20% | 27% | 4.96 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guadalajara | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1479.17 | 1464.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.81 | -9.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 50.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |