← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 58% | 37% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.37 | value: +5% |
| Barcelona B win | 20% | 39% | 4.86 | value: +89% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 732.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1515.66 | 1625.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.21 | 15.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 57.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.77 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |