← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 61% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.36 | fair |
| Girona win | 17% | 22% | 5.87 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1591.98 | 1545.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.70 | -19.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 71.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.75 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |