← Segunda División 2012-13 · Mon, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 85% | 74% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.19 | value: +56% |
| Xerez win | 5% | 9% | 21.00 | value: +93% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Xerez |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 146.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1623.26 | 1326.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.69 | -1.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 68.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.69 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |