← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 50% | 40% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
| Cordoba win | 22% | 31% | 4.45 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.68 | 1493.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | 2.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 49.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |