← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 46% | 37% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 26% | 34% | 3.74 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1394.03 | 1504.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.42 | 14.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |