← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 36% | 30% | 2.72 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 34% | 40% | 2.88 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1443.25 | 1538.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.73 | -8.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.62 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |