← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 51% | 35% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
| Sp Gijon win | 23% | 38% | 4.30 | value: +62% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1059.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.93 | 1542.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.14 | -12.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 38.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |