← Segunda División 2012-13 · Mon, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara win | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Murcia win | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guadalajara | Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.98 | 1403.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.13 | 11.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |