← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 46% | 60% | 2.14 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Mirandes win | 25% | 13% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.79 | 1449.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.23 | 11.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |