← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 53% | 47% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.78 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 21% | 26% | 4.72 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 322.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1564.01 | 1580.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.78 | 1.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 65.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.03 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |