← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 69% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.87 | value: +5% |
| Girona win | 11% | 18% | 8.90 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1611.71 | 1548.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.87 | 5.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 65.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.76 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |