← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid B win | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.30 | fair |
| Lugo win | 15% | 17% | 6.57 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid B | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1493.17 | 1465.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.29 | -31.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.64 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |