← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
| Numancia win | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1082.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.65 | 1486.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.80 | -23.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |