← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
| Recreativo win | 18% | 22% | 5.46 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1543.61 | 1426.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.09 | -27.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 62.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |