← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 40% | 31% | 2.41 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 30% | 36% | 3.23 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1449.69 | 1506.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.61 | 18.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 42.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |