← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 42% | 36% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Lugo win | 29% | 34% | 3.39 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.62 | 1549.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.29 | -17.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |