← Segunda División 2012-13 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 52% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 313.00 | 709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1583.53 | 1521.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.69 | 8.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 76.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.49 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |