← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.71 | value: +4% |
| Elche CF win | 18% | 20% | 5.52 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 124.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1608.31 | 1570.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.80 | -15.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |