← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 59% | 67% | 1.66 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.94 | fair |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 16% | 11% | 5.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1544.58 | 1406.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.48 | -2.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 59.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |