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Almeria 2–1 Real Racing Club de Santander

← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Almeria win59%67%1.66value: +12%
Draw25%21%3.94fair
Real Racing Club de Santander win16%11%5.93fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaReal Racing Club de Santander
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days308.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1544.581406.90
elo momentum (last 5)-14.48-2.50
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points59.0035.00
league rank6.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
rest days7.009.00
season ppg1.640.97
state index-0.10-0.66
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60