← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
| Lugo win | 18% | 21% | 5.48 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 703.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.31 | 1476.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.05 | -7.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |