← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 24% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.23 | 1478.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.26 | 6.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |