← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 39% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +12% |
| Murcia win | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1401.29 | 1557.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.47 | -14.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |