← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 55% | 40% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
| Lugo win | 18% | 29% | 5.56 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1474.47 | 1610.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.08 | 21.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 47.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |