← Segunda División 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 42% | 30% | 2.31 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 31% | 44% | 3.13 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Racing Club de Santander | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 56.00 | 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.77 | 1515.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.28 | -27.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |