← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 70% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.66 | fair |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 10% | 9% | 10.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1606.57 | 1419.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.04 | -0.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 58.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |