← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid B win | 58% | 65% | 1.68 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.01 | fair |
| Mirandes win | 18% | 14% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid B | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1478.19 | 1449.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.76 | -24.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 44.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |