← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 49% | 41% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| Xerez win | 24% | 33% | 4.13 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Xerez | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1327.99 | 1547.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | 19.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.62 |
| state index | -2.02 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |