← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 36% | 41% | 2.70 | value: +11% |
| Sp Gijon win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.26 | 1554.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.66 | 34.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |