← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 58% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Lugo win | 16% | 22% | 6.19 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 293.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.01 | 1486.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.71 | 19.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |