← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.66 | fair |
| Murcia win | 20% | 23% | 4.99 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.17 | 1610.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.27 | 36.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 35.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.73 |
| state index | -1.12 | 1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |