← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 70% | 66% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.05 | value: +10% |
| Xerez win | 10% | 12% | 9.44 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Xerez |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 287.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1578.78 | 1330.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.78 | -18.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 69.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.19 | -2.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |