← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 41% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| Real Madrid B win | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Real Madrid B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1454.86 | 1460.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.87 | 18.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |