← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 63% | 39% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.34 | value: +19% |
| Xerez win | 15% | 34% | 6.60 | value: +123% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Xerez | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1328.34 | 1479.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.77 | 19.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.03 |
| state index | -2.27 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |