← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 63% | 52% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.32 | value: +19% |
| Numancia win | 14% | 20% | 6.83 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 96.00 | 1041.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1598.29 | 1522.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.20 | 40.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 54.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.41 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |