← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 61% | 59% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
| Lugo win | 13% | 14% | 7.54 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1582.85 | 1492.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.96 | 15.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 68.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |