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Villarreal B 0–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, Jun 3, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
RC Deportivo La Coruña win44%47%2.10fair
Villarreal B win30%27%3.00fair
Draw26%25%3.50fair

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVillarreal BRC Deportivo La Coruña
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—399.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
elo1457.291657.32
elo momentum (last 5)9.2913.35
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.55
league points52.0088.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank7.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.272.15
state index-0.230.82
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80